Three senior Iranian officials have told Reuters that a ceasefire deal in Gaza stemming from talks this week is crucial to preventing direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Iran has vowed a severe response to Haniyeh’s killing, which it blames on Israel. With the risk of a broader Middle East war looming, Iran has been engaged in intense dialogue with western countries and the US to calibrate its response.
One senior Iranian security official stated that Iran, along with allies like Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or if it feels Israel is stalling negotiations, without specifying a timeline for response. The US has deployed warships to bolster Israeli defenses, while the US ambassador to Turkey is urging allies to help de-escalate tensions with Iran.
Iran is considering sending a representative to the Gaza ceasefire talks, but indirectly, to maintain diplomatic communication while negotiations proceed. The hope is that a ceasefire in Gaza would allow Iran to retaliate with a smaller, symbolic response. Hezbollah sources close to Iran have indicated that Tehran will give negotiations a chance but is not abandoning its intentions to retaliate.
Meanwhile, Israel’s military offensive in the Gaza Strip has resulted in numerous civilian casualties, with Palestinian medical officials reporting at least 16 deaths, including women and children. The ongoing conflict in Gaza has led to a downgrade of Israel’s economic rating by Fitch Ratings, raising concerns about the impact on Israel’s credit metrics and economic activity. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reassured that the rating will be raised again once Israel emerges victorious from the conflict.
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